Tandem paragliding over the Rocky Plateau, Hà Giang

Km45 · Weather

Flying forecastQuản Bạ & Đồng Văn

10-day forecast for both flying sites on the Ha Giang Loop: every hour scored by pilots' rules, expert score, thermals, meteogram, airgram, Skew‑T and wind map.

Quản Bạ · Launch 950 m · landing 450 m

Today's flight status

Details

Quản BạMonitoring the weatherOur team is watching the wind and clouds. Flight times may be adjusted.8 km/h62%22–26°CAutomatic forecast Đồng VănParagliding onlyMonitoring the weatherOur team is watching the wind and clouds. Flight times may be adjusted.11 km/h98%20–24°CBest 07:00Automatic forecast

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Quản Bạ flying forecast

10-day forecast

Pick a flying day

📍 Quản Bạ (Hà Giang)23.0604, 105.0190▲ launch 950m → ▼ landing 450m · height difference 500m☀ Sunrise 05:50 · sunset 17:49 (11h59)

Weather analysis

Flying-day assessment

🧭 UNSTABLE day: harsh thermals, strong turbulence, cumulus building fast — risk of OD/afternoon storms, fly mornings only

🌬Surface wind: average 1.6 m/s (light), max 2.4, mainly S

🪁Upper wind: Calm wind at all levels throughout the flying window — 950(launch)/1250/1950m AMSL = wind 2/2/4 m/s: no shear, climb freely

☀️Sunshine: 10 hours of sun, cloud cover 57%

🔥Thermals: light 42/100, peak 08:00–10:00 — some lift but light, moderate flights; best 11:00–14:00

⚖️Stability: UNSTABLE (LI -5.1) — harsh, turbulent thermals, cumulus building fast (OD risk — overdevelopment), thunderstorms 93%

🧢Inversion: no stable layer within 3,000m — thermals rise freely

🌡Pressure: 1013 hPa (sea level)

🌦Drizzle: drizzle 11:00–16:00 (0.4–0.8 mm/hour) — not real rain, still flyable; go up as soon as it eases

🌀Turbulence: moderate turbulence: unstable air — keep your speed, active piloting, do not fly close to terrain, be ready to handle a collapse

🔥 Thermal potential:light42/100peak 08:00–10:00· 2 thermal hours

• Good sunshine at the peak (565 W/m² · 60 min of sun · cloud 31%).

• Low thermal top (~885 m AGL) — thermals die when they reach it.

• Stable low levels, far from DALR (ELR 0.54 °C/100 m (DALR 0.98) · layer 1531–3000 m AMSL) — weak thermals.

• Deep instability aloft (LI -5.4 · CAPE 1890 J/kg) — drives thermals up strongly but easily turns into thunderstorms.

• Gust pulses stronger than the background wind (gusts 6.2 over a 1.9 m/s base) — thermals are active.

⚠ Strong instability — thermals make cumulus OVERDEVELOP into afternoon thunderclouds; fly in the morning, land before storm clouds appear.

👉 Advice

• Thunderstorm risk 93% — fly in the morning, be landed before noon and watch the sky: the gust front reverses the wind, with VIOLENT GUSTS 10–20 minutes BEFORE the rain arrives. No need to rest all day, but if you see towering cumulus with dark bases, land early.

By the numbers

Key figures of the day

Expert score: 83/100; confidence 100%
Best window: 13:00–15:00; 0 green hours · 11 amber · 0 red
Thermal potential: 42/100; light · peak 08:00–10:00
Lowest cloud base: ~113 m above launch; thermal top ~1430 m
Wind at launch (950 m): 1.6 m/s; max 2.4 · gusts 7 m/s
Wind at flying height 1250 m (+300 m): 2.3 m/s; speedbar from 8 m/s · no flying above 12
Thunderstorm risk: 93%; watch the cumulus, stop when cloud bases turn dark
Rain in the flying window: Light drizzle; drizzle 11–17h
Sunrise / sunset: 05:50 · 17:49; 10 sunshine hours
Temperature: 22–26°C

😐 MARGINAL83/100 · confidence 100%

Flyable but limited — check with the pilot before heading up.

Wind m/s: 1.0 → 2.4 S
Rain: Drizzle — still flyable · 11–17h
Storm: 93%
Wind at launch (950 m AMSL): 1 m/s
Wind at 1250 m AMSL (+300 m): 2 m/s
Inversion: no capping layer
sunshine hours: 10
Pressure: 1013 hPa
Thermal potential: light · 42/100 · peak 08:00–10:00 · 2 thermal hours
Cloud cover: 63%

Weather charts

Hour by hour, layer by layer

Source: ECMWF (Open-Meteo) · updated 29/09, 18:26 · wind m/s

Model:

	Today☀ 05:50–17:49											Wed 30/09☀ 05:51–17:48											Thu 01/10☀ 05:51–17:47											Fri 02/10☀ 05:51–17:46											Sat 03/10☀ 05:52–17:45											Sun 04/10☀ 05:52–17:44											Mon 05/10☀ 05:52–17:43											Tue 06/10☀ 05:53–17:42											Wed 07/10☀ 05:53–17:41											Thu 08/10☀ 05:53–17:40
Hour	07h	08h	09h	10h	11h	12h	13h	14h	15h	16h	17h	07h	08h	09h	10h	11h	12h	13h	14h	15h	16h	17h	07h	08h	09h	10h	11h	12h	13h	14h	15h	16h	17h	07h	08h	09h	10h	11h	12h	13h	14h	15h	16h	17h	07h	08h	09h	10h	11h	12h	13h	14h	15h	16h	17h	07h	08h	09h	10h	11h	12h	13h	14h	15h	16h	17h	07h	08h	09h	10h	11h	12h	13h	14h	15h	16h	17h	07h	08h	09h	10h	11h	12h	13h	14h	15h	16h	17h	07h	08h	09h	10h	11h	12h	13h	14h	15h	16h	17h	07h	08h	09h	10h	11h	12h	13h	14h	15h	16h	17h
Sky	⛅	⛅	⛅	⛅	🌦	🌦	🌦	🌦	🌦	🌦	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	⛅	⛅	⛅	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	⛅	⛅	⛅	⛅	⛅	🌧	🌦	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	⛅	⛅	⛅	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌦	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	⛅	⛅	☀️	☀️	☀️	⛅	🌧	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌦	🌦	🌦	🌧	🌧	🌧	🌧	🌧	🌧	🌧	🌧	🌧	🌧	🌧	⛅	⛅	⛅	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	⛅	⛅	⛅	⛅	⛅	⛅	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️
Wind m/s	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.9	2.1	2.3	2.4	2.0	1.5	1.0	0.6	1.0	0.4	0.5	1.2	1.6	2.0	2.2	2.3	2.3	2.1	1.4	0.6	0.7	0.9	1.2	1.7	2.3	2.6	2.5	2.2	1.8	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.2	1.2	1.5	2.0	2.5	2.5	2.3	2.0	1.4	1.5	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.9	2.2	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.2	1.9	0.9	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.6	0.8	1.0	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.7	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.5	2.3	2.0	1.8	1.6	2.7	2.4	1.9	1.5	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	2.3	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.5	1.3	1.8	1.8	1.5	1.0	0.6	2.4	1.6	0.6	0.4	1.3	2.3	2.8	2.7	2.1	1.6	0.9
Fly?	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😊	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😞	😞	😊	😊	😊	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😞	😞	😞	😐	😊	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😐	😞	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😞	😞	😞	😞	😞	😞	😞	😞	😞	😞	😞	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊	😊
Gusts	3.2	4.1	5.2	6.2	6.8	7.3	7.3	6.7	5.7	4.7	3.8	3.1	3.4	3.9	4.4	5.3	6.3	7.0	7.3	7.3	6.8	5.5	2.3	2.7	3.4	4.2	5.5	7.0	7.9	7.9	7.3	6.6	5.9	4.7	4.8	4.6	4.7	5.5	6.7	7.5	7.9	8.0	7.7	6.7	4.8	5.1	5.5	6.0	6.9	8.0	8.7	8.8	8.5	8.3	8.6	5.2	5.6	6.2	6.4	5.9	5.2	4.9	5.6	6.8	7.5	7.0	11.3	11.7	12.0	11.9	11.0	9.7	8.9	9.1	9.8	10.1	9.4	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.2	7.1	7.1	7.1	7.2	7.4	7.5	7.6	6.0	6.1	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.3	6.5	6.7	6.9	7.0	5.7	6.1	6.5	6.9	7.3	7.7	8.0	8.3	8.5	8.6	8.6
Direction
Rain	–	–	–	–	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	1.2	0.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	2.5	–	–	–	0.7	0.7	0.7	1.8	1.8	1.8	2.2	1.4	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
⚡ Storm	43%	50%	63%	70%	72%	79%	86%	89%	93%	89%	85%	44%	55%	68%	75%	80%	81%	77%	73%	66%	63%	62%	36%	44%	55%	75%	86%	90%	88%	85%	84%	88%	92%	40%	38%	36%	39%	49%	64%	71%	79%	85%	86%	79%	22%	22%	23%	24%	30%	43%	58%	65%	69%	68%	71%	11%	13%	17%	20%	17%	13%	15%	17%	18%	19%	16%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Cloud base	113m	225m	387m	488m	487m	438m	388m	–	–	–	175m	112m	250m	412m	575m	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	112m	188m	337m	463m	550m	600m	–	–	500m	413m	288m	25m	63m	150m	238m	362m	488m	563m	–	–	–	–	0m	50m	125m	225m	337m	462m	538m	550m	462m	388m	288m	37m	125m	238m	313m	313m	288m	237m	175m	113m	63m	63m	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Thermals	very light	very light	light	moderate	moderate	moderate	moderate	moderate	moderate	light	light	very light	very light	light	light	moderate	moderate	moderate	moderate	light	light	very light	very light	very light	light	light	moderate	moderate	moderate	moderate	moderate	moderate	light	very light	very light	very light	light	light	light	light	light	light	light	very light	very light	very light	light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	very light	light	light	light	moderate	moderate	moderate	light	light	light	very light	very light	light	light	moderate	moderate	moderate	moderate	moderate	light	light	very light	very light	light	moderate	moderate	moderate	strong	strong	strong	strong	moderate

Forecasts are indicative. The pilot decides on site whether to fly or postpone, with safety first; if a flight is postponed for weather you may reschedule or get a refund.

Weather map

Wind, cloud, rain and radar around Quản Bạ

The Windy map is centred on the exact launch coordinates. Switch layers to check low cloud, cloud base, fog or rain radar; switch models to cross-check.

Layer

Model

Meteogram on Windy ↗Airgram on Windy ↗Open Windy map ↗

How to read the forecast

Flying rules for the Quản Bạ site

Every hour between 7:00 and 17:00 is rated green / amber / red with the same rules the Mebayluon team uses every day; each reason is listed so you know exactly what spoils the weather. Wind is in m/s — the unit pilots read on the anemometer at launch.

The forecast is a guide; the final decision to fly always belongs to the pilot at launch.

Today's flying status

Flying window 7:00–17:00
All daily figures — best window, rain hours, assessment, expert score — only consider the hours from 7:00 to 17:00.
Surface wind (m/s)
The pilots' scale: below 2 light · 2–4 moderate · 4–6 fresh · 6–8 strong · above 8 very strong. Up to 4 m/s is green, 4–7 m/s marginal, above 7 m/s no flying.
Tailwind behind launch
West, north-west and south-west winds blow from behind the Quản Bạ launch: above 3 m/s means no flying; below 3 m/s you can still take off.
Gusts
Gusts alone do not decide flying or not — 4 m/s gusting 12 is normal in the mountains. Above 16 m/s we warn of strong gusts; above 18 m/s flying is not recommended.
Wind at flying height (+300 m)
Wind at 1250 m AMSL (300 m above launch): from 8 m/s the speedbar must be fitted and you stay low on the slope; above 12 m/s you are easily blown back — no flying.
Rain (mm per hour)
Below 0.4 mm counts as dry; 0.4–0.8 mm is drizzle, noted only; from 0.8 mm it is real rain — flying stops. Colours are not lowered for the model's rain percentage.
Low cloud and fog
Cloud base is estimated from the temperature – dew point spread. Thick low cloud (≥ 70%) with a base less than 150 m above launch means the launch is in cloud — no flying; below 300 m visibility is limited. Humidity ≥ 98% with cloud on the ground is fog.
Thunderstorms are a warning
Thunderstorm risk combines CAPE and the lifted index. From 40% it is a warning — watch the cumulus, stop when cloud bases turn dark; 20–40% is only noted. Harsh thermals drop an hour to marginal because the wing gets rough.
Day rating 😊 😐 😞
A day is 😊 good to fly with at least two consecutive green hours; any other green or amber hour makes it 😐 marginal; a fully red flying window is 😞 rest day.
Expert score 0–100
Nine factors, each with its own curve tuned for tandem passenger flights — smooth scores higher than strong. A dangerous factor caps the whole hour at 20. The day score is the average of the best 3 consecutive hours: from 75 good, 55 fair, 35 limited. It comes with a confidence based on lead time and data completeness.
Thermal potential 0–100
Six factors: sunshine (20), boundary-layer top (45), lapse rate above launch (20), deep stability LI/CAPE (15); upper wind and humidity can only subtract. Below 25 very light · 25–45 light · 45–65 moderate · 65–82 strong · from 82 very strong.
Multiple models
ECMWF by default; switch to ECMWF · GFS · ICON · UKMO · GEM or compare 3 models side by side. Wherever the models disagree, that hour's forecast is uncertain.